First of all, I want to PRAISE and THANK all of you who responded to my post yesterday calling on Catholics to support Rick Santorum in these states.

One provocative take on what fueled this Santorum surge is Larry Kudlow’s (who most people will know from his financial show on CNBC):

“A vote for Rick Santorum tonight was the easiest and most immediate voter path to protest Obamacare and Obama’s pro-abortion view.”

Kathyrn Lopez says Kudlow told her: It’s a referendum on Obamacare and the Department of Health and Human Services mandate.

Now there’s a fascinating idea. After all, polls show that a large portion of GOP primary voters are making their final choice for who to support the week before and day of the primary. As my list shows, Catholic bishops across Minnesota, Missouri and Colorado instructed their priests to join them in denouncing the mandate from the pulpit these past two Sundays, and a Rasmussen poll today finds that a majority of voters oppose the mandate. And Rick Santorum has been mentioning his strong opposition to the mandate on the campaign trail leading up to yesterday’s elections.

People are angry about this mandate. And they are looking for the candidate who most strongly can articulate what is wrong with the mandate and what he would do as President to reverse course on this and a host of other threats to religious freedom.

Whatever the reasons, Rick Santorum now has his best shot to win the Republican nomination. Maine is currently holding its caucuses. Arizona and Michigan hold their primaries on February 28th (save the date!) and Washington state holds its caucuses on March 3rd. If you live in these states or have friends and family who do, please do what you can to continue building the Santorum momentum!

As I tweeted last night, “I love that politics still surprises me. I predicted a big night [for Rick Santorum]. This was a huge night.”

I woke up this morning realizing the possibility of a Rick Santorum presidency is far less remote than it was yesterday. What a pleasant and, indeed, exciting surprise. Game on!

If you have reservations about supporting Mitt Romney, and live in one of these three states, this is your last chance to prevent Mitt from winning the GOP nomination.

To put it bluntly, I don’t think Newt Gingrich will be able to challenge Mitt Romney in a 1-on-1 race. Santorum has proven (in Iowa) that we can. Polling shows Santorum is in contention for first place in all three states voting on Tuesday. Katrina Trinko of NRO lays out what she calls “Santorum’s Last Stand.” I call it Santorum’s best chance to win the GOP nomination.

Quin Hillyer of NRO makes perhaps the best political case for Rick Santorum winning the GOP nomination and going on to win the general election. If you’ve already decided Rick simply can’t beat Mitt or Obama, I invite you to read her piece with an open mind.

(Santorum, I might add, is the only GOP candidate leading Barack Obama in Gallup’s general election match-up.)

I’ve made the Catholic case for Rick Santorum before. The simplest way I can pitch Rick is this: he’s a good man who may disappoint us sometimes (as all politicians do) — but he will never betray us, and he will never knowingly betray the principles that make this country great. That’s more than enough for me.

Finally, the thought came to me, if we don’t nominate Rick, we’re going to have some moment during the general election or, God forbid, the day after the election, where we look back on this opportunity and realize, “Hey, we could have nominated Rick back when we had the chance.”

Let’s not guess how that will feel. Let’s do the right thing today.

So game on, Rick. We’re behind you.

So I’m glad that Ron Paul is generally pro-life. But he sure could do better on the defense of human life. Let’s look at some votes he cast before he started running for president in 2008.

• Ron Paul voted No on a national ban on human cloning, Roll Call No. 39 on Feb. 27, 2003.
• Ron Paul voted No on a bill that would prevent taking minors across state lines to avoid parental notification laws, Roll Call No. 479 on Sept. 26, 2006.
• Ron Paul vote No on the Unborn Victims of Violence Act, which would allow federal and military prosecutors to bring charges on behalf of a child “in utero” when they have been attacked in a federal or military crime. Roll Call No. 31 on February 26, 2004.

Supporters of Ron Paul would defend him on these votes on the grounds that he’s simply a federalist and strong defender of the Constitution and that abortion shouldn’t be a federal issue. Murder like most crimes are a state crime, Ron Paul has said often.

But what about the 14th Amendment to the Constitution? This is the Amendment after all which was passed because state laws were not protecting the liberties of millions of their  citizens.

All persons born or naturalized in the United States, and subject to the jurisdiction thereof, are citizens of the United States and of the State wherein they reside. No State shall make or enforce any law which shall abridge the privileges or immunities of citizens of the United States; nor shall any State deprive any person of life, liberty, or property, without due process of law; nor deny to any person within its jurisdiction the equal protection of the laws.

So when New York legalized abortion in 1970 (before Roe v. Wade) they were allowing their own citizens to be deprived of their right to life enshrined in our Constitution. Think of it this way, if Colorado passed a law allowing you to kill someone if they had red hair, would you say Congress had no right to stop Colorado? Of course not. Unlike education or energy policy, the right to life is protected by our U.S. Constitution. We should make a federal case about it.

Finally, in several debates, Ron Paul has promoted his bill called the Sanctity of Life Act. He notes that the bill would strip jurisdiction over abortion from the federal courts, thus rendering the Supreme Court unable to overturn state laws protecting unborn life (like Roe had done so notoriously 39 years ago.)

But there’s a major problem with supporters of Ron Paul using this bill to show how pro-life he is. Especially when he’s voted no on great pro-bills over the last decade. Let me explain.

Back in 2004, Republicans held both the House and the Senate and George W. Bush was in the White House. Rep. Todd Akin, R-MO, authored the Pledge Protection Act, which would strip the federal court of any jurisdiction over the Pledge of Allegiance. While his bill passed the Republican-led House, it died in the Republican-led Senate. It never reached President Bush’s desk.

While recent polls suggest that a slim majority of Americans now call themselves pro-life, it pales in comparison to the Pledge. The support for keeping ‘Under God’ in the Pledge is at 87%.

If we can’t get a court jurisdiction bill on the Pledge to become law with Republicans in charge of the House, Senate and the White House, what makes us think we could ever get Ron Paul’s bill passed? It would be naive to think this is a winning strategy. This bill has almost no chance of becoming law anytime soon. Quite simply, supporting Ron Paul’s Sanctity of Life Act is not an effective way to combat legal abortion in the United States. And it certainly doesn’t exonerate someone for casting some bad votes.

Here’s the very latest as of 11:30PM EST:

I think Santorum’s numbers will continue to improve slightly as the results are finalized.

1:00AM UPDATE — some first thoughts:

For many voters, tonight was the first time they got a chance to see Rick Santorum as a real contender, after he has spent the past months quietly canvassing every county in Iowa. Tonight viewers of his speech were reminded that hard work and aspiration pay off. Santorum said tonight he learned these essential lessons from the example of his grandfather and father.

He was inspiring, effective, while sounding fully like himself. He contrasted his positions with both the Democrat and Republican establishment, arguing that “cutting taxes is not enough.” He offered more: for America to reach its full potential, he said, it must embrace the values that made it into the great country it is. American values, Santorum said, which are not shared by those who currently occupy the White House.

One of my favorite lines of his speech: “Thank God for people who cling to their guns and bibles… They understand that when the family breaks down the economy does.” One of Santorum’s unique contributions to this debate has been to constantly tie American’s economic success to the strength of her families and marriages.

Another favorite line of his: “What motivates me? The dignity of every human life.” He also tied human dignity to the particular dignity of work and labor. An uplifting vision which reveals a heart that has been touched by serving rural Pennsylvania areas where shuttered steel mills marked the landscape.

Mitt Romney began his speech by graciously congratulating Santorum for his strong finish tonight. I have to say the rest of his speech was underwhelming. Could it be that Rick managed to get underneath Romney’s skin tonight? It’s fascinating to consider what that bodes for the future.

At any rate, I think it’s pretty clear that we’ve got a real race on our hands. And I look forward to seeing how it plays out in the coming critical weeks. Stay tuned.

1:30AM UPDATE — click here for video of Rick Santorum’s speech in Iowa tonight.

12:00PM UPDATE, Day 2 — Final vote tally in Iowa: Mitt Romney, 30,015. Rick Santorum, 30,007. An 8 vote spread. A good reminder that every. vote. counts.

A big part of the story line heading into today’s caucuses is the surging support for Rick Santorum, now that many of the leading Mitt Romney alternatives (Cain, Gingrich, Perry) have failed to retain support:

In the closely followed Des Moines Register poll just released at 8pm, Romney is 24, Paul 22, Santorum 15, Newt Gingrich 12, Rick Perry 11, and Michele Bachmann 7. That’s the four-day result. If just the last two days are taken into account, Romney is still at 24, Santorum jumps to 21, and Paul is down to 18. That means–in the word of the hour–Santorum has momentum. If Bachmann and Perry fade more at the end–and this poll result could hurt them–Santorum is within striking distance of a stunning upset. [NRO]

Of course, there is still a good chance that Romney will eke out a victory.

Ron Paul’s support (currently placing him in the top 3) is largely due to democrats and independent voters supporting him. The race for GOP support is largely between Romney and Santorum at this point.

Santorum placed second in our CatholicVote straw poll, which was taken during the height of Newt Gingrich’s support (Thanksgiving weekend). Even when Santorum’s support in Iowa was in the single digits, he drew 14% support in the CV poll. Santorum is in a very good place at this point because the main thing holding him back was the perception that he was unelectable. As more people support him, he begins to appear more electable, which in turn earns him more support, and so on.

Back in June of 2011 I wrote “The Catholic Case for Rick Santorum” in which I said:

“I think there is reason to believe Santorum may go farther than we’d expect this time around. [...and] If a Rick run catches fire, there is plenty of underbrush ready to catch flame.”

That prediction seems to be coming true now. Or at least, we’ll see how true it turned out to be after the results from today’s caucuses are known.

On a somewhat related note, I’ve been asked by readers to talk about Ron Paul and why I don’t more vocally support him. The fact is I don’t support him. I was interested in him during the 2008 campaign but what I’ve learned about his views since then, and frankly, what his supporters have made his campaign about this time around is a deal-breaker for me.

If Rick Santorum wins today — or places in the top three — it will be a very significant development. Why? Because Santorum has unabashedly led on the social issues throughout his campaign (Deacon Keith Fournier at CatholicOnline, a friend of Santorum’s, has eloquently been singing his praises for some time and in particular this week.). Rick has vigorously campaigned as a pro-life and pro-family candidate and his victory would show that GOP primary voters want to elect such a candidate, which I think would be a very good sign.

One particularly disturbing trend I must note, because it pertains to Santorum’s Catholic faith, is the effort by some (mostly Ron Paul supporters) who are trying to use Rick’s faith against him. Here is one example (which quotes my praise of Santorum):

“So go Rick, go,” says CatholicVote.org,” This American Papist is pulling for you.”

Evangelicals drawn to Santorum after leaving Bachmann’s dwindling campaign should know what they’re getting into. It’s not evangelicalism; it’s liberalism and Social Justice no better than Obama, really.

And if you think Paul has a foreign policy problem, just imagine how complicated it gets when a man’s highest Spiritual allegiance is to the Vatican and not to the American people.

Jeffrey Lord of the American Spectator gives another example of a Catholic Ron Paul activist attempting to draw Catholics away from supporting Santorum.

Catholics owe it to Santorum to stick behind him in these coming days, whatever the outcome in Iowa, so that voters are not deceived about his faith and what our faith holds.

And with that, I leave these open thread questions:

• If you could vote in the Iowa caucuses today, who would you support and why?
• Who do you think is the best candidate in terms of Catholic social teaching?
• Who do you think is the best candidate to challenge Obama in the general election?

I’ll be tweeting throughout the day (@AmericanPapist) covering the news as it arrives from Iowa.

May God bless those caucusing in Iowa today!

Michael Sean Winters is not a right-winger.

Michael Sean Winters of the National Catholic Reporter rails against the Obama administration for not providing a true religious exemption in their contraception mandate and also calls it bad politics. http://is.gd/WaNb1l

Even Commonweal magazine published an editorial (sorta) against the lack of religious exemptions in the HHS mandate (but not without taking a swipe at our bishops).http://is.gd/PQjZsI

You must read this devastating review of George McGovern’s new book by CV blogger Mark Stricherz over at The Public Discourse. (I didn’t know that about his daughter’s abortion nor that she died of alcoholism.)  http://is.gd/LXWI3Y

I tip my hat today to Dale Hansen, a TV sportscaster at WFAA in Dallas, who spoke courageously on the air about the critical need to protect children from sexual abuse. http://is.gd/2Up45G

Conservative columnist Matt Lewis says that a Ron Paul win in Iowa will increase Mitt Romney’s chances of winning the nomination. http://is.gd/Ghrn2d

Newt Gingrich forced to leave Iowa to gather signatures in Virginia to get on the state’s ballot. http://is.gd/1VF1tj

Is there a Rick Santorum surge going on? http://is.gd/w4V7bb

Pro-family activist Bob Vander Plaats denies that he explicitly asked Michele Bachmann to drop out of the race. Frankly, I like his chutzpah. http://is.gd/wb2eMT

Life magazine releases breathtaking vivid color photos from the Battle of the Bulge. http://is.gd/caR44L

U.S. existing homes sold since 2007 is revised down by 14%. http://is.gd/poeWXA

One despicable leftist ad showed a Republican pushing a grandmother off of a cliff.

Christmas comes early for Paul Ryan. Politifact calls the claim that “Republicans voted to end Medicare” as the “Lie of the Year 2011.” http://is.gd/vgJWIm

GOP unhappiness with the field fuels buzz for Jeb Bush. http://is.gd/0rsajT

Dissident, pro-abortion, lesbian ex-nun leaves the Catholic Church and becomes an Anglican priest. http://is.gd/Nr1iE6

Don Wildmon, founder of the American Family Association endorses Newt Gingrich. http://is.gd/SRZF13

UPDATED: Iowa social conservative activist Bob Vander Plaats endorses Rick Santorum. (I thought he was leaning toward Perry recently). http://is.gd/lJY3V5

President Obama seriously thinks he’s the fourth best president ever. Maybe higher. http://is.gd/o9QYjO

Good news: Support for the death penalty continues to decline. http://is.gd/2K22nu

Iowa Republicans worry if Ron Paul wins the Iowa caucuses that it will ignored in future years. http://is.gd/9B2gSX

Awesome: Michigan withdraws $200,000 grant to Planned Parenthood. http://is.gd/H02uOf

Lame: The city council of Duluth (4th largest city in Minnesota) votes to oppose state marriage amendment drive. Jeff Anderson, who brought up the resolution, is planning to run for Congress against Republican Rep. Chip Cravaack. http://is.gd/sZroEA

National Democrats don’t want a repeat of their special election loss in NY-9. They are flooding Oregon’s special election to be held on Jan. 31 with $1 million in ads. The election is being held in OR-1 after Democrat Rep. David Wu resigned after a sex scandal. http://is.gd/TroWPy

A new study release this week by a team of Italian scientists gives more evidence for the Shroud of Turin’s authenticity. http://is.gd/YGLS8G

A bumper sticker available for purchase at Ron Paul's Web site. This is the sort of thing one would expect to find at the Obama campaign site.

The not-Mitt race for the GOP nomination is swinging wildly. Bachmann had her day in Ames, but those seeds were sewn on rocky ground. Cain was dogged by allegations of infidelity and inappropriate behavior. Perry stumbled through the debates. Gingrich hasn’t fully fallen yet, but he’s teetering and his numbers are cooling off. Ron Paul is gaining momentum and rising in the polls. Could Ron Paul take the nomination? A thousand times: no.

He’s wonderfully pro-life. He is a sure vote against profligate spending.* He is a racist and has a pretty low opinion of Jews and celebrated when David Duke nearly won a Senate seat.

Wait what?

Yup.

But don’t take my word for it. Read about what was published under his name.

A sample:

Citing reports that 85 percent of all black men in the District of Columbia are arrested, Paul wrote:

“Given the inefficiencies of what D.C. laughingly calls the `criminal justice system,’ I think we can safely assume that 95 percent of the black males in that city are semi-criminal or entirely criminal,” Paul said.

And:

We don’t think a child of 13 should be held responsible as a man of 23. That’s true for most people, but black males age 13 who have been raised on the streets and who have joined criminal gangs are as big, strong, tough, scary and culpable as any adult and should be treated as such.

And on Jews:

By far the most powerful lobby in Washington of the bad sort is the Israeli government.

And his limp-wristed (look it up: it means weak) attempt to distance himself from all this was merely “I didn’t write it, a staffer did, and it would be too confusing to explain it away beyond that.”

Not a direct quote, but an apt paraphrase. And utter nonsense since every noxious word was printed under his name.

I was not a fan of Ron Paul before this, seeing his foreign policy as utter lunacy in a world of a global economy, ICBMs, nuclear weapons, and non-linear warfare, but I had forgotten about this stuff.

And if you find yourself wondering why I and so many others are appalled at this sort of thing, well, that’s terribly unfortunate. If you comment, I or a site administrator will likely approve your comments, but I’m not going to engage in discussion about that topic.

—-

*His votes against spending bills on limited-government, libertarian, anti-pork grounds are merely symbolic since a) the bills are going to pass anyhow; and b) he already signed on to get his share of pork when they do.**

——-

**We spell that: h-y-p-o-c-r-i-s-y.

Sen. Ron Wyden, D-OR

Bipartisan support, finally! Rep. Paul Ryan, R-WI, teamed up with Oregon Democrat Sen. Ron Wyden on a new plan to reform Medicare. Wyden said it was time for conservatives and progressives to come together and “deal with the costs and demographic challenges.” It won’t do as much to solve Medicare’s insolvency as Ryan’s previous plan, but reforming the expensive but popular plan without any Democratic support is impossible. http://is.gd/AZwNoA

Newt Gingrich drops 12 points in Iowa, with 12 points going to Perry and Paul in the latest Rasmussen poll. Mitt is now in first in Iowa. Romney 23%, Gingrich 20%, Ron Paul 18%, Rick Perry 10%, Michele Bachmann, 9%, Rick Santorum 6%, and Jon Huntsman 5%.  http://is.gd/MsQiQK

Lifeway, a Christian bookstore chain, pulls the Komen Bible from their shelves because of Komen’s support for Planned Parenthood. http://is.gd/nCt4lY  

No surprise, but good to make it official: The National Right to Life Committee and its Nebraska affiliate will oppose Sen. Ben Nelson’s reelection in Nebraska. http://is.gd/33O8GL

Rumors have swirled that former NM Gov. Gary Johnson, who supports abortion, might leave the GOP presidential race and run on the Libertarian Party banner. He says he hasn’t made up his mind, but he did offer an idea of what a third-party run would look like. http://is.gd/H4I4iw

According to Andrea Tornielli, all documentation is being prepared for Pope Benedict XVI to proclaim Blessed Hildegard the new Doctor of the Church in October 2012 during the “Year of the Faith.” http://is.gd/lNHQUN

R.I. Governor Lincoln Chafee, an Independent who made news for dedicating a “holiday” tree dropped even further in the polls, now at just a 27% approval rating. Merry Christmas, Linc. http://is.gd/N5CHFk

Rivals fail to stop Newt Gingrich’s momentum during Saturday’s Iowa debate. http://bit.ly/vDTlAm

Seven former employees offer to testify against Planned Parenthood. http://bit.ly/tiSpYu

Jon Huntsman praised abortion champion Kathleen Sebelius when Barack Obama nominated her as head of the Dept. of Health and Human Services. http://bit.ly/slhTBx

Documents on possible Archbishop Fulton Sheen miracle headed for Vatican. http://bit.ly/s1tzLB

Many Catholic colleges not complying with Ex corde Ecclesia, study shows. http://bit.ly/uUHGn0

This excellent profile on the successes of Bobby Jindal, Governor of Louisiana, has one conservative leader musing of brokered convention that nominates him to go against Obama. (Me, too!) http://bit.ly/vBvkEK 

Ron Paul accuses Newt Gingrich of selling access. http://bit.ly/uCFk8U 

Justice Elena Kagan will be recused from the Arizona immigration case because of her earlier involvement as Solicitor General. http://bit.ly/w0L5TT